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Predictability of an Atmospheric Blocking Event that Occurred on 15 December 2005

机译：2005年12月15日发生的大气阻塞事件的可预测性

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Atmospheric blocking occurred over the Rocky Mountains at 1200 UTC 15 December 2005. The operational medium-range ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), as initialized at 1200 UTC 10 December 2005, showed remarkable differences regarding this event. All of the NCEP members failed to predict the correct location of the blocking, whereas almost all of the JMA members and most of the CMC members were successful in predicting the correct location. The present study investigated the factors that caused NCEP to incorrectly predict the blocking location, based on an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and the JMA global spectral model (GSM) multianalysis ensemble forecasts with NCEP, regionally amplified NCEP, and globally amplified NCEP analyses.A sensitive area for the blocking formation was detected over the central North Pacific. In this area, the NCEP control analysis experienced problems in the handling of a cutoff cyclone, and the NCEP initial perturbations were ineffective in reducing uncertainties in the NCEP control analysis. The JMA GSM multianalysis ensemble forecasts revealed that regional amplification of initial perturbations over the sensitive area could lead to further improvements in forecasts over the blocking region without degradation of forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), whereas the global amplification of initial perturbations could lead to improved forecasts over the blocking region and degraded forecasts over the NH. This finding may suggest that excessive amplification of initial perturbations over nonsensitive areas is undesirable, and that case-dependent rescaling of initial perturbations may be of value compared with climatology-based rescaling, which is widely used in current operational ensemble prediction systems.
机译：2005年12月15日，格林尼治标准时间1200在落基山脉上发生了大气阻塞。加拿大气象中心（CMC），日本气象厅（JMA）和国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的运行中距离总体预报于2005年12月10日1200 UTC初始化，显示出此事件的显着差异。所有NCEP成员都无法预测阻塞的正确位置，而几乎所有JMA成员和大多数CMC成员都可以成功预测正确的位置。本研究基于基于整体的敏感性分析以及具有NCEP，区域放大的NCEP和全局放大的NCEP分析的JMA全球光谱模型（GSM）多分析整体预报，研究了导致NCEP错误地预测阻塞位置的因素。在北太平洋中部发现了阻塞形成的敏感区域。在该区域，NCEP控制分析在处理旋风分离器时遇到问题，并且NCEP初始扰动无法有效降低NCEP控制分析中的不确定性。 JMA GSM多分析合奏预报显示，对敏感区域的初始扰动进行区域放大可能会导致对阻塞区域的预报进一步改善，而对北半球（NH）的预报不会降低，而对初始扰动的整体放大可能会导致改进了对阻塞地区的预报，并降低了新罕布什尔州的预报。这一发现可能表明，不敏感区域上初始扰动的过度放大是不希望的，并且与基于气候的缩放相比，初始扰动的依情况而定的缩放可能具有价值，后者在当前的操作集成预测系统中被广泛使用。

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